In close collaboration with Seoul National University's Structural Complexity Laboratory


Covid-19 Information

Click here if you want to know why I'm sharing this. But much more important…

Please click on this link, read the content, and share it to others

The line above is a link to the most detailed analysis of the Covid-19 epidemic I've seen. It's information everyone needs, to understand why we are the cusp of the crisis, and what we need to do.

This argument makes sense on its own. When you take the next one into account, endgame C is the only game in town: it's endgame C or the Italian experience (or what will very soon be even worse, the US experience)

  • There is only one option, which is to follow China and South Korea in aiming to elimate Covid-19. Anything else leads inevitably to tens of thousands of deaths. And also leads to far worse economic disruption. The only question is how fast (and how fast will just be a matter of luck). In the end, we are going to follow China and S. Korea, because any government staring into the abyss will blink. Which means we will bear the economic cost of stringent control anyway, but from a far worse base, and therefore for far longer and with far more deaths than necessary. Don't “flatten the curve”, Kill the Curve.

If you think that's worrying, try thinking about rapidly getting to herd immmunity without killing unnecessary millions as a control problem: that will really freak you (see above)

How you can use these three resources to figure out for yourself the situation in particular countries

Not long ago, Australia was in the three-day tier; it's a fair bit better now, but not yet good enough. We need to start to see reductions in the community-acquired infection rate before we can even start to relax.

I haven't had time to verify this story, but it makes sense – China has ramped up unbelievably fast to a huge productive capacity for the gear necessary for managing the epidemic. They don't need it all now – but we do