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| - | ====== Covid-19 Information ====== | + | ====== Covid-19 Information ====== |
| [[covid19:why|Click here if you want to know why I'm sharing this]]. But much more important... | [[covid19:why|Click here if you want to know why I'm sharing this]]. But much more important... | ||
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| - | The line below is a link to the most detailed analysis of the Covid-19 epidemic I've seen. It's information everyone needs, to understand why we are the cusp of the crisis, and what we need to do. | ||
| **[[https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca|Please click on this link, read the content, and share it to others]]** | **[[https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca|Please click on this link, read the content, and share it to others]]** | ||
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| + | The line above is a link to the most detailed analysis of the Covid-19 epidemic I've seen. It's information everyone needs, to understand why we are the cusp of the crisis, and what we need to do. | ||
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| + | * [[https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232]|stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone]] | ||
| + | This argument makes sense on its own. When you take the next one into account, endgame C is **the only game in town**: it's endgame C or the Italian experience (or what will very soon be even worse, the US experience) | ||
| + | * [[https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.06967.pdf|why no other strategy can work]] | ||
| + | * There is only one option, which is to follow China and South Korea in aiming to elimate Covid-19. Anything else leads inevitably to tens of thousands of deaths. And also leads to far worse economic disruption. The only question is how fast (and how fast will just be a matter of luck). In the end, we are going to follow China and S. Korea, because any government staring into the abyss will blink. Which means we will bear the economic cost of stringent control anyway, but from a far worse base, and therefore for far longer and with far more deaths than necessary. Don't "flatten the curve", **Kill the Curve**. | ||
| === Some other Useful Links === | === Some other Useful Links === | ||
| * [[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19|A Harvard epidemiologist's view on 'rapidly getting to herd immunity' as a strategy]] | * [[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19|A Harvard epidemiologist's view on 'rapidly getting to herd immunity' as a strategy]] | ||
| - | If you think that's worrying, try thinking about rapidly getting to herd immmunity without killing unnecessary millions as a control problem: that will really freak you (see below) | + | If you think that's worrying, try thinking about rapidly getting to herd immmunity without killing unnecessary millions as a control problem: that will really freak you (see above) |
| - | * [[https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone-134232]|stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone]] | + | |
| - | This argument makes sense on its own. When you take the next one into account, endgame C is **the only game in town**: it's endgame C or the Italian experience (or what will very soon be the even worse, the US experience) | + | |
| - | * [[https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.06967.pdf|why no other strategy can work]] | + | |
| - | There is only one option, which is to follow China and South Korea. Anything else leads inevitably to tens of thousands of deaths. And also leads to far worse economic disruption. The only question is how fast (and how fast will just be a matter of luck). In the end, we are going to follow China and S. Korea, because any government staring into the abyss will blink. Which means we will bear the economic cost of stringent control anyway, but from a far worse base, and therefore for far longer and with far more deaths than necessary. | + | |
| * [[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries|Worldometer on Covid-19]] | * [[https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries|Worldometer on Covid-19]] | ||
| * [[https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/|Worldometer on Country Populations]] | * [[https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/|Worldometer on Country Populations]] | ||
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| [[covid19:How|How you can use these three resources to figure out for yourself the situation in particular countries]] | [[covid19:How|How you can use these three resources to figure out for yourself the situation in particular countries]] | ||
| * [[https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus|Countries by current doubling rate for Covid-19 Infection]] | * [[https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus|Countries by current doubling rate for Covid-19 Infection]] | ||
| - | Australia is in the three-day tier: that's a dreadful place to be | + | Not long ago, Australia was in the three-day tier; it's a fair bit better now, but not yet good enough. We need to start to see reductions in the community-acquired infection rate before we can even start to relax. |
| * [[https://www.wired.com/story/jack-ma-supply-us-covid-19-tests-masks/|China as a source of Covid-19 gear]] | * [[https://www.wired.com/story/jack-ma-supply-us-covid-19-tests-masks/|China as a source of Covid-19 gear]] | ||
| I haven't had time to verify this story, but it makes sense -- China has ramped up unbelievably fast to a huge productive capacity for the gear necessary for managing the epidemic. They don't need it all now -- but we do | I haven't had time to verify this story, but it makes sense -- China has ramped up unbelievably fast to a huge productive capacity for the gear necessary for managing the epidemic. They don't need it all now -- but we do | ||
| - | | + | |
| + | /* | ||
| === And here's where it get's a bit Australian and a bit Political === | === And here's where it get's a bit Australian and a bit Political === | ||
| Lest what is to come below seem all negative, I want to first share a piece of bright sunshine. Australia currently has arrival bans on all countries. The good news is, we don't need to. We could un-ban arrivals from China, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan with minimal risk. Why? Becsuse their rates of undiagnosed Covid-19 are all far less than ours (and of course, they are not going to let people they know have Covid-19 on a plane). So the safest person you could meet, say on the streets of Sydney, would be someone just off the plane from China. So why is our government maintaining the ban? I think it's **because it would be enormously embarrassing for Australia to un-ban say China**, but still have hardly anyone come because they would know that **China would not let them come back**. Spin wins the day yet again! It shows how badly Australia has stuffed up. But it also shows how much hope there is, if only we could get our act together. We do not need to think pessimistically. China has completely solved its problem, they have half the active cases we do, despite around 50 times the population. And **South Korea** is dramatically reducing its active cases too. They are testing more people than us, and their new infection rate is far below ours, strongly suggesting that their undiagnosed infection rate is also way below ours. And they got there without huge social disruption. But the bottom line is, the whole of East Asia is now safer than Australia, despite going to Hell and back. So why are we still on that road to Hell???. | Lest what is to come below seem all negative, I want to first share a piece of bright sunshine. Australia currently has arrival bans on all countries. The good news is, we don't need to. We could un-ban arrivals from China, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong or Taiwan with minimal risk. Why? Becsuse their rates of undiagnosed Covid-19 are all far less than ours (and of course, they are not going to let people they know have Covid-19 on a plane). So the safest person you could meet, say on the streets of Sydney, would be someone just off the plane from China. So why is our government maintaining the ban? I think it's **because it would be enormously embarrassing for Australia to un-ban say China**, but still have hardly anyone come because they would know that **China would not let them come back**. Spin wins the day yet again! It shows how badly Australia has stuffed up. But it also shows how much hope there is, if only we could get our act together. We do not need to think pessimistically. China has completely solved its problem, they have half the active cases we do, despite around 50 times the population. And **South Korea** is dramatically reducing its active cases too. They are testing more people than us, and their new infection rate is far below ours, strongly suggesting that their undiagnosed infection rate is also way below ours. And they got there without huge social disruption. But the bottom line is, the whole of East Asia is now safer than Australia, despite going to Hell and back. So why are we still on that road to Hell???. | ||
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| Finally, please don't give in to [[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/coronavirus-cases-rise-in-nsw/12048334|pessimism]]. The linked ABC report seems to imply that 1.5 million cases in NSW are inevitable -- I'm hoping it's a misinterpretation of the minister. Either way, it is **not** inevitable. China and South Korea were both in far worse states, within respectively one and two orders of magnitude more population, than NSW when they reacted decisively. They are not going to see 1.5 million cases, China is not going to reach 100,000 cases, and Korea will probably just nudge 10,000. OK, China's reactions were draconian (but given they had no warning, probably necessary), and we don't want that level of control here. But we have had at least two months' warning. South Korea is a liberal democracy, and its actions have been measured but effective. We could do worse than follow their example. Yes, one key issue (on-line case tracking) infringes on privacy. But if almost everyone gives this information to google and apple and other large businesses with barely a thought, so that they can send us the right advertising, we can certainly do so to save lives. | Finally, please don't give in to [[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/coronavirus-cases-rise-in-nsw/12048334|pessimism]]. The linked ABC report seems to imply that 1.5 million cases in NSW are inevitable -- I'm hoping it's a misinterpretation of the minister. Either way, it is **not** inevitable. China and South Korea were both in far worse states, within respectively one and two orders of magnitude more population, than NSW when they reacted decisively. They are not going to see 1.5 million cases, China is not going to reach 100,000 cases, and Korea will probably just nudge 10,000. OK, China's reactions were draconian (but given they had no warning, probably necessary), and we don't want that level of control here. But we have had at least two months' warning. South Korea is a liberal democracy, and its actions have been measured but effective. We could do worse than follow their example. Yes, one key issue (on-line case tracking) infringes on privacy. But if almost everyone gives this information to google and apple and other large businesses with barely a thought, so that they can send us the right advertising, we can certainly do so to save lives. | ||
| + | */ | ||